College Football Lead Pipe Locks for October 30th

1. Michigan St. (+7) at Iowa

Wisconsin just beat Iowa at Iowa. Michigan State beat Wisconsin handily three weeks ago. Now, this reasoning doesn’t always pan out, but I really don’t see how this game will result in a comfortable win for Iowa. In fact, I think the money-line for Michigan State in this game would be very enticing. The MSU running backs are too good to be shut down and the Spartan defense is good enough to keep this game very close. Take Sparty and the points here, and feel good about it. Prediction: Iowa 24 – 23.

2. Missouri (+8) at Nebraska

As good as Nebraska has been this season, Missouri has actually been better, and they are certainly more battle-tested. Mizzou is undefeated and has dispatched with very good Illinois and San Diego State teams, in addition to throttling Texas A&M and beating #1 Oklahoma last week. Outside of it’s win over Oklahoma State last week, Nebraska’s best win this season was over a now 3-4 Washington team, and remember – the Huskers lost to the worst Texas team in the last 8-10 years. Hey, maybe Nebraska wins, but 8 points is too much to lay to a team as dangerous on both sides of the ball as the Tigers are. Prediction: Nebraska 38 – 34.

3. Penn St. vs. Michigan (over 50)

Michigan averages 36 points per game, good for 17th in the country. Penn State has the 21st ranked scoring defense, but has yet to face another Top 25 offense all season. Last week Michigan – with its two best offensive players (QB Denard Robinson & center Dave Molk) standing on the sidelines for most of the game – scored 28 against the Hawkeyes’ then #1 ranked scoring defense. Michigan won’t struggle to score against Penn State, especially coming off of a bye week. And since we all know that Bentonville High School could put up at least 20 on the Michigan defense, going over 50 in this game is a lock. Prediction: Michigan 38 – 27.

4. Auburn (-7) at Ole Miss

Something about this line screams “Sucker Bet” to me, but I guess I’m just going to have to take the bait. I understand that Auburn has only played on the road twice this season, winning close at Mississippi State in week 2 and Kentucky in week 6. I also know that Ole Miss beat Kentucky. However, I can’t help but base my opinion of this game on the week 7 & 8 versions of these teams, and there is a whole lot more than a seven point difference. Take the Tigers, but they probably won’t win by 20 or more like you might expect. Prediction: Auburn 41 – 30.

Lock of the Week!

*Michigan (-1.5) at Penn State

Penn State has been a major disappointment this season. In all honesty, the beating they took from then #1 Alabama may have been the high point of their season so far, because hey, at least it was Alabama. On top of their struggles, they’ll likely have to go with their 2nd or 3rd string QB this week because starter Robert Bolden is still feeling the effects of a concussion he suffered last week, and back-up Kevin Newsome has a knee issue. Michigan is coming off of a bye week during which it was able to get its three best players healthy. Quarterback Denard Robinson, nose tackle Mike Martin, and center Dave Molk are all back to 100% after they all incurred minor, but game-ending injuries against Iowa two weeks ago. The Wolverines know that this is a must win game for their coach, and they will win this game convincingly. Prediction: Michigan 38 – 27.

Record for the season: 11-12
Locks of the Week: 3-2

– Warzecha –

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6 responses to this post.

  1. Posted by Fool to Listen on October 27, 2010 at 3:28 pm

    How can this guy dispense advise on picking games? Look at his record for the season and if you are any good at picking games your “locks” record should be better than 60%! What a joke!!!

    Reply

    • Posted by Warzecha on October 27, 2010 at 4:05 pm

      First of all, I’m dispensing advice, not advise. I know, I know, you were only one letter off, and that’s pretty close. But you know it wasn’t an accidental misspelling. You just used the wrong word from the language that I assume is your first and only.

      Second, it’s not like I’m swindling our readers into paying for a subscription here. It’s just my breakdown on a few of the big games each week. If I were really trying to pick winners like my life depended on it, I’d probably pick some Sunbelt or WAC game that nobody (especially me) cares about.

      Third, feel free to throw your winners down here in the comments. Let’s see if you do better this week. I’m feeling pretty good about going at least 4-1, despite my affinity for sticking to the “big” games.

      Reply

      • “advise” – lol

        I gotta give you props Warzecha for picking big games week in and week out.
        Plus its easy for “Foot to Listen” to bash people in the comments, cause if he’s wrong its no big deal. He’ll just comment under a different name next time.

        Reply

        • Posted by Spencer on October 28, 2010 at 1:24 am

          Everyone is a winner the weak after….., ” yeah i picked that team to when” is probably a common phrase you like to utter ……Like he said already why don’t you pick the games publicly and well all sea how you due. Halve you looked at Phil Steele’s record lately….and he makes you by his reports. I’m sure Warzecha sat down with every game on the bored and picked he would cum out a little better than 60%, frankly wii all wood/should. The difficulty of big games is what makes people read it. If they were too tell me Arkansas is going to roll UTEP every weak wouldn’t have much reason to read it would I?

          …(my favorite was wii)

          Reply

  2. Posted by Blake on October 29, 2010 at 12:26 pm

    @ Warzecha – Way to bully the poor illiterate bastard. Anyways, my picks of the week…
    Baylor +7 Texas
    UCLA +9 Arizona
    Missouri +8 Nebraska
    Duke +14 Navy
    Michigan -2 Penn State

    Reply

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