College Football Lead Pipe Locks For October 23rd

1. Wisconsin (+6) at Iowa

The Badgers are coming off of their first win over Ohio State under Brett Beilema, and Iowa is returning home after a hard-fought win over Michigan on the road last week. Obviously, Wisconsin’s win was the bigger of the two, but often times that kind of upset comes with sluggish results in a teams’ next game. However, you shouldn’t be worried about that with this disciplined Badger team. Having watched both of these teams quite a bit this season, I’ve come to the conclusion that Wisconsin is simply the better of the two. They may lose in Iowa City, but I see this playing out as a game decided by three or four points. Take Bucky and the points. Prediction: Wisconsin 27 – 24.

2. Auburn (-6) vs. LSU

Listen, I don’t dismiss the fact that LSU has a stout defense. They are #6 against the run nationally and allow only 14.4 points per game, good for 11th best in the country. But I’ve already made the mistake of underestimating Cam Newton’s ability to run wild on a real SEC defense. I thought Newton’s 198 yards rushing earlier this season against South Carolina had been a fluke. And say what you want about the Razorbacks, but going into that game they had played good defense all season, and I figured the Hogs would at least hold him to around 100 yards. Not so much. Like, not so much at halftime. South Carolina is STILL the #14 run defense in the country. They’d probably be Top 10 like LSU had they not met with Auburn’s QB already. So, long story short, LSU won’t be able to shut down Auburn’s offense no matter how highly their defense is ranked and LSU’s offense is not good enough to take full advantage of Auburn’s weak defense. Prediction: Auburn 34 – 27.

3. Oklahoma State (+6) vs. Nebraska

This game pits the nations 2nd highest scoring offense in Oklahoma State against Nebraska, a Top 15 scoring offense. The principal difference between these two is the defense, where Nebraska is Top 10 material and the Cowboys are barely Top 75 material. However, having played the #11, 23, 29 & 46 offenses is a decent reason to the Okies have an unimpressive defensive ranking. Nebraska, in comparison has only faced a single Top 50 offense, #37 Kansas State. I’m not giving up on Nebraska at all. Actually, I think they simply ran into a buzzsaw last week in a Texas team, coming off a bye, that was desperate to avoid a third straight loss. Those longhorns, love ’em or hate ’em, have a ton of pride. My guess is that Nebraska pulls off the win here, but six points is too much to give to a team that has taken on all comers to this point and is playing at home. Prediction: Nebraska 34 – 30.

4. Oregon (-23.5) vs. UCLA

Both teams are coming off of bye weeks heading into this game at Autzen Stadium. Both teams headed into their respective breaks with injured quarterbacks. The difference is that Oregon’s Darron Thomas is back to 100% and has been practicing all week, whereas UCLA’s Kevin Prince has been watching his back-up take all the first team snaps. Prince has been tagged as doubtful for the game, and the Bruins will also be missing a starting corner on Thursday night. Night game, Autzen Stadium, back-up quarterback, #1 team and scoring offense coming out of a bye week fully healthy…recipe for a beatdown. Prediction: Oregon 44 – 16.

Lock of the Week!!!

**Air Force (+19) at TCU

Air Force was ranked until just last week when they fell narrowly to a good San Diego State squad, 27-25. TCU has only played one good team all season, Oregon State. Air Force is probably just as good as the Beavers, but even harder to prepare for given their triple-option offense. TCU beat Oregon State by 9 and allowed the Beavers to score 21 points. Air Force’s offense is more explosive and should score more than that. The only three teams TCU has truly shut down this season are Wyoming, Colorado State, and BYU. Those three teams are ranked #109, #115, and #119 in scoring offense….out of 120 teams. This TCU defense is good, but with only one week to prepare for a triple-option attackun to perfection, this 19 point spread is too much to give. Prediction: TCU 34 – 20.

Overall Season Record — 8-11
Lock of the Week Record — 3-1

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6 responses to this post.

  1. Scout’s, Inc. likes Oregon, Auburn and Wisconsin to cover, but Nebraska to win by 8. They didn’t analyze the TCU/Air Force game…but who needs a second opinion on Illegal Shift’s Lock of the Week??

    Reply

  2. Posted by Blake on October 21, 2010 at 12:11 pm

    I love the OSU, Oregon, and Air Force pick but like LSU 6 and Iowa -6. LSU always keeps it close and they have most athletic and maybe best defense in CFB, while Wisconson 6 looks a little fishy considering they just upset the #1 Buckeyes. Perfect letdown game IMO…

    Reply

  3. Posted by T Hump on October 21, 2010 at 5:00 pm

    Going to disagree on the Auburn game. LSU/Auburn is always a good game. You throw in the Mad Hatter and anything is possible. I hate LSU more than any other team in the country, but them getting 6 points is pretty shocking. Granted, they have no offense and so Vegas is just thinking they won’t score, their defense is the best Cameron Newton has or will see. John Chavis will have a game plan for him. The guy is a defensive genius and they will shut him down better than any team has thus far. This is a stay away game in my mind.

    My locks would be:
    Louisiana Lafayette (-6) at home against Western Kentucky.
    Arkansas St (-7 teased from -7.5) at home against Florida Atlantic.
    Oklahoma (-3) at MIssouri. **LOCK
    Michigan State (-6) at Northwestern.

    (I know Sunbelt games aren’t glamorous but I like those teams this weekend)

    Reply

    • I’m totally with you on the Sun Belt games. ASU plays 10X better at home then on the road and Western Kentucky is just horrible.

      Reply

  4. Posted by Spencer on October 22, 2010 at 12:08 pm

    Gotta agree with these picks, the Oregon pick IMO was pretty easy, should have been the lock of the week. The LSU/AUB game can go either way so i’m staying away from that one. I like Wisconsin to lose but cover, My favorite would have to be MSU/ Northwestern.

    Reply

    • Posted by Warzecha on October 22, 2010 at 3:51 pm

      Yeah, that’s a good one for sure. I heard SVP hyping it as a great pick today too. I guess I’m just (unfortunately) sold on this being a different Sparty team that the normal one that implodes at the first taste of success or sign of adversity. Which I guess is a long way of saying – always implodes no matter what. I mean they are still sending kids to jail at the standard rate, but the on-field performance seems to be less affected by it.

      Reply

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