Here is one of the scenarios we came up with that allows Arkansas to play for a National Championship in 2010-2011.
- Arkansas wins out through week 11, and goes into Little Rock to face LSU with a 10-1 record. This will undoubtedly move Arkansas up in the rankings from current #11 ranking into the Top 5, almost regardless of what other teams are doing.
- Auburn, outside of a merciless beat down at the hands of the Razorbacks, wins the rest of their games through week 11, and goes to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama with a 10-1 record ranked behind Arkansas.
- Alabama also wins all of its games through week 11 (not that hard to believe).
- In week 12, Arkansas beats LSU AND Alabama loses the “Iron Bowl” to Auburn.
This likely does two things.
- A three-team tie is created atop the SEC West.
- Arkansas should be high enough to have Alabama fall below the Hogs in the post-week-12 rankings.
3 Way Tie-Breaker
In this scenario, Arkansas will win the SEC West tie-breaker for having the highest BCS ranking of the three tied teams and earn a spot in the SEC Championship Game. (NOTE: it could be possible that Auburn’s win over Alabama could vault the Tigers over the Razorbacks in the polls, but I think because: (1) Arkansas beat Auburn down in October and (2) Arkansas will be getting an impressive win of its own that week, Arkansas will hold Auburn back)
Arkansas does what it couldn’t do in 2006 and beats Florida in Atlanta
A one-loss SEC champion is going to play for the national title this year. While Boise State and TCU may not lose, a 12-1, SEC Champion Arkansas team would almost certainly jump over them based on how much stronger their computer poll numbers would be.
A Few Losses That Would Help
This leaves Ohio State, Oregon, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Arizona as potentially ahead of Arkansas.
- Arizona and Oregon will knock one of each other off
- Oklahoma and Nebraska – if the Sooners even make it to the Big 12 title game.
- Ohio State needs to lose to at least one out of @Wisconsin, Penn St, @Iowa or Mich.
- Oregon needs to lose to at least one out of @USC, Wash, @Cal, AZ or @OR St.
- Huskers need to lose to at least one out of TX, @OSU, Mizzou, @A&M or Big 12 Championship Game
Arkansas is in. Simple as that!
– Warzecha –