NFL Week 3 Fantasy Picks

Wanna win this week in fantasy football? Pay attention.

QBs That Will Make You Look Good: Warzecha

  1. Tony Romo – As much as I hate to admit it, the Cowboys are going to have a hell of a time getting their first win of the season playing at Houston on Sunday. I fully expect Houston to continue their high scoring ways at home in Reliant Stadium. The fact that Dallas’ #1 corner Mike Jenkins is questionable for the game only strengthens my convictions. However, another thing I am sure of is that the Cowboys will be ready to fight for this win. If they are to even come close, and I think they will, it’s going to take 2-3 touchdown passes and a lot of yards from Romo…
  2. Brett Favre – This is the week ol’ Greybeard begins looking like the 2009 version. Or, why don’t I say this…it better be. Brett gets to face a Lions defense at home that has been absolutely molested during the first two weeks of the season by non-elite QBs Jay Cutler and Michael Vick. With an 0-2 record, no team could wish for more than the Detroit Lions at home (I wish the Cowboys could be so fortunate). Look for #4 to spread the ball around to more than just Visanthe Shancoe this week and toss a couple touchdowns en route to the Vikings’ first win of the season.
  3. Jay Cutler – I hesitate to ride this train for much longer, given what happened last season. But the fact that Jay is playing in a completely different offense this season must also be recognized. Maybe these first two weeks are the norm for Jay Cutler in 2010. Whether it is or isn’t, you can count on him for big numbers again this week against Green Bay at home. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are going to score. Combine that certainty with the Bears anemic running game, and Cutler will be throwing all night to try to keep up. Expect a couple picks by the Green Bay secondary, but three (dare I say four?) touchdowns will will more than make up for them.

Three guys to stay away from this week

  1. Carson Palmer – Palmer and the Bengals are traveling to Charlotte this weekend, and they’ll smell the desperation as soon as they cross the Carolina border. The Panthers are 0-2 and will be led by the Golden Boy himself, Jimmy Clausen. Look for the Panther’s to play to their strength and hit the run game hard in an effort to get their first win of the season. This will shorten the game and keep an overlooked but talented Carolina defense fresh and…did I already say desperate? Expect an underwhelming statistical day from Palmer.
  2. Alex Smith – Mr. Inconsistent. Yes, the former #1 overall pick looked good on Monday night against the Saints at home, but don’t count on a repeat performance this week in Kansas City. First of all, the KC defense has been surprisingly effective through two weeks, holding both the Chargers and the Browns (well that’s not so surprising) to 14 points each. Additionally, the Chiefs are unlikely to pull away from the 49ers like the Saints did in the 2nd half last Monday. This will allow Mike Singletary to do what he likes to do – play defense and run the ball.
  3. Chad Henne – Henne will be at home, and going up against a defense forced to play without their best defensive back. Problem is that defense is the New York Jets. With or without Revis, the Jets will make life miserable for the young Henne and the entire Dolphin’s offense. Maybe Henne’s arm strength will allow him to hit a long touchdown to Marshall at some point. That’s the best case scenario though, and you expect more than one interception from the only QB to start four years at Michigan and never win a single game against Ohio State.

Sam Bradford – Bradford is back at home this Sunday and facing the Washington Redskins, who have looked surprisingly good through two weeks. Look for Washington to get up and build a lead in this game, forcing the Rams to throw more than they’d like to – similar to what they did in week 1 when the 2008 Heisman winner attempted more than 50 passes in his first NFL start. Washington’s secondary fell apart in the second half of their game last week against Houston, and while Bradford is no Matt Schaub (and all of St. Louis’ wide receivers put together may not be Andre Johnson), not many NFL quarterbacks are. Bottom line – if you don’t have a stud to play this week go with the guy who will throw the most, and that could very well be Bradford.

Put Em In: Andy

  1. Ray Rice – After facing the Jets in Week 1 and the Bengals in Week 2, Rice is doing the happy dance this week because he gets the Browns’ 25th ranked defense.  He’s faced two teams with great linebackers that can cover him as a receiver but this week he should be able to bust loose on the ground and through the air for big gains.  Look for the screen pass to be huge for him this week.
  2. Maurice Jones-Drew – MJD is another fantasy stud that has gotten off to a shaky start.  A normal touchdown machine, he has yet to reach the end zone and only has four receptions for the year.  If Garrard can stop throwing picks and the Jaguars can establish the running game, MJD can get back on track.  I expect that to be this week against a Philly D that is probably still chasing Jahvid Best around Detroit.
  3. Knowshon Moreno – Moreno is still recovering from a preseason injury but has shown signs of fantasy progression after two weeks, scoring in both games.  He gets the Colts this week and their awful rush defense.  He may not have an Arian Foster-type game but should find the end zone at least once.

Leave Em Out

  1. Marion Barber/Felix Jones – Until Jason Garrett’s love affair with calling pass plays ends, neither back can be trusted.  Neither has received a total of 20 carries this season and this week they face the surprisingly, stingy Texans’ defense…#2 against the rush.
  2. Jamaal Charles – Charles has only received 11 carries each game this season despite showing he has the same big play ability he flashed last year.  Is it a flash if you have a 1000 yard season?  This week he gets Patrick Willis and the 49ers stout run defense so don’t expect much.
  3. Arian Foster – Foster had a huge Week 1 against the Colts but was held in check against a good Skins defense last week.  Despite their 0-2 start, Dallas has played well against the run and should be able to contain Foster.  Foster owners shouldn’t worry for too long though as he has more favorable matchups coming up including a Week 8 tilt against the same Colts team that thought they were playing two-hand-touch in Week 1.

Darren McFadden – I’m terrified I’m jinxing RUN DMC so imagine the next few sentences in a whisper.  This could be the year that McFadden finally lives up to the hype and expectations of a top 10 pick.  He’s averaging over 100 yards a game and is proving to be a threat in the passing game.  Although he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown this year, I expect that to change against a horrible Cardinals rushing defense.

WRs That Are A Must Start: Thompson

  1. Miles Austin – The Cowboys running game is non-existent, which means more looks for Miles.  This weeks game against Houston should turn into a shootout.  Look for Miles to be targeted often and rack up 12 catches, 135 yards, and 1 TD.
  2. Randy Moss – Moss is still on the new contract campaign and wants nothing more than to prove he can still play.  The Buffalo Bulls..I mean Bills will not be able to stop the Pats offense.  Moss will need to get involved early to put up big numbers as the Pats will most likely call the dogs off early in this, sure to be blowout.  The former Marshall Thundering Herd standout should standout Sunday to the tune of 8 catches, 130 yards  and 1 TD.
  3. Roddy White – If the Falcons get into a shooting match with Brees and the Saints, White will reap the benefits.  Roddy is averaging 10 catches a game with 13 coming against the stingy Steelers defense.  Last week White caught 7 balls even though the Falcons went to the run in the second half of a blowout win against the Cardinals.  Look for White to be targeted a ton and end the game with 10 catches, 110 yards and 1 TD.

Bench Em

  1. Chad Ochocinco – Carson Palmer is not playing like an elite level quarterback.  That combined with a road game against a decent Carolina defense should keep Chad out of the end zone and your starting lineup.  This will turn into a field position game as neither team will be able to move the ball.  Look for Chad to only manage 3 catches, 45 yards and no scores.
  2. Steve Smith (Car) – Smith will be playing in the same field position game as Chad Ochocinco and really doesn’t have much for a quarterback.  In fact, rookie QB Jimmy Clausen might take over for Matt Moore. However, this really shouldn’t factor much because neither one of these guys are going to get it done this week.  The Bengals defense is really good and will keep Smith in check.  A disappointing 4 catch 50 yard performance is what you should expect.
  3. Dwayne Bowe – San Fran’s defense kept Drew Brees and the Saints in check last Monday, enough said.  The Chiefs MIGHT get a couple field goals.  Look for Bowe to haul in a whopping 6 catches for 60 yards with most of this coming in garbage time.

Team Defenses You Want To Start: Jacob

  1. Steelers – This team has looked dominant in both of their first two games. The defense is the sole reason they are 2-0 at this point. Now that Dennis Dixon is hurt their D is gonna have to step it up even more. The Buccaneers won’t be able to do much on offense so if you own the Steelers D then sleep well this weekend.
  2. Ravens – Another really good defensive team that is playing a bad offensive team. The Browns scare nobody and they shouldn’t scare you from starting the Ravens with complete confidence.
  3. Bengals – The Bengals got things back on track in Week 2 and look for them to ride that success through Week 3. The lowly Panthers are coming to town and they’ll be starting rookie QB Jimmy Clausen. Look for a scared Clausen to turn the ball over and not score many points.

Redskins – Don’t let last week’s performance scare you off. Sure they gave up a lot of yards and points, but the Rams don’t have Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. The Redskins are gonna be in a bad mood after having the Texans rip a victory out of their hands in Week 2. Look for them to pound the Rams into submission.


One response to this post.

  1. Posted by Warzecha on September 24, 2010 at 9:47 am

    Andy – I challenge your lack of faith in Dallas’ run game this week. I think it will be a point of focus against Houston.


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