NFL Week 1 Fantasy Picks

Wanna win this week in fantasy football? Pay attention.

QBs That Will Make You Look Good: Warzecha

  1. Peyton ManningSurprise, surprise right? Well in addition to being who he is, Manning is going to be in a shootout at Reliant Stadium this Sunday with Houston, another high-powered offense. Combine that match-up with RB Joseph Addai coming off of a concussion he suffered just two weeks ago, and this being Peyton’s first real game since throwing an infamous pick-six to Tracy Porter in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl…let’s just say you should expect Manning to be “on.”
  2. Matt Schaub – Same game, other team. This is as much about Andre Johnson as it is Schaub. Johnson always seems to go off against division-rival Indianapolis and this time around will be no different. I expect Schaub to hit his favorite target for two TDs in this game and toss another to one of Jacoby Jones, Kevin Walter, or his talented and recently-rehabbed TE, Owen Daniels. If you haven’t figured this out yet, you should all be betting the “over” on this one.
  3. Jay Cutler – I’m not overly bullish on Cutler this season, but I do like him a lot this weekend at home throwing against a weak Detroit secondary. Expectations are high (although I’m not sure why) in Chicago this season and the Bears know that this is a game they must have early in the season. Look for Mike Martz to dial up plenty of deep routes for Johnny Knox and Devin Hester to exploit the Detroit defensive backs, and don’t underrate Cutler’s chances of tossing a touchdown pass to one of his Marshall-Faulk-wannabe backs, Matt Forte and Chester Taylor. Given the opponent and the sense of urgency for the Bears, I like Cutler for 250+, 2TDs and a single pick…I mean he is Jay Cutler.

Three guys to stay away from this week

  1. Matt Ryan – Pittsburgh’s defense doesn’t need a reason to terrorize a quarterback, but they know they really have to be on their game with Dennis Dixon getting the start at QB this week. Ryan will get beat up bad enough in this game to keep him from having a Top 10 week.
  2. Chad Henne – I’m a huge Michigan football fan, so I am hoping for big things this year from Chad, but I have to admit he was underwhelming throughout the preseason. This game is on the road, and while the Bills may end up with the 1st pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, they won’t be selecting any defensive backs with that pick because their secondary is one of the team’s biggest strengths. Expect an even heavier than normal dose of Ronnie and Ricky in this one.
  3. Mark Sanchez – In case you didn’t watch “Hard Knocks,” Sanchez struggled throughout the entire preseason until the 4th and final game. He was indisputably great last week though – while calling plays for Mark Brunell from the sidelines. He’s playing Baltimore. You’ve been warned.

WRs That Are A Must Start: Thompson

  1. Andre JohnsonMatt Schaub lead the league in passing last year with over 4700 yards.  Johnson is his number one target and with a new contract signed, should be poised to have another big year.  This will be a back and forth game with lots of big plays.  You should expect Andre to be involved early and often on his way to racking up 8 catches 120 yards and a TD. Starting him is a no brainer.
  2. Reggie Wayne – At age 34 Peyton Manning has shown no signs of slowing down and while he has a multitude of targets, Wayne is still his favorite.  Reggie wants a new deal and is going to start off the season trying to prove he still has plenty of game left.  In two games against Houston last year, Wayne barely broke 80 yards.  Don’t let that keep you from starting him this week.  Expect him to go toe to toe with his counterpart Andre Johnson.  Prediction – 7 catches 110 yards and a TD.
  3. Miles Austin – Miles came out of no where last year to emerge as a Pro Bowl receiver and Tony Romo’s number 1 wide out target (insert Roy Williams trade bust joke here).  He has a new contract and the faith of the one and only Jerry Jones.  Romo lead the ‘Boys to their first playoff victory in 13 seasons last year and has them hungry for more.  Expect the seemingly always smiling Miles to be smiling at the end of the this game.  He’ll torch the Redskins “Haynesworth-less” defense for 7 catches 90 yards and 2 TDs.

Sleeper Pick: Michael Crabtree – Whaaaa? Yeah thats right, Michael Crabtree.  The 49ers will go to Seattle and face a team who was near the bottom against the pass in 2009.  The Seahawks lost a lot on defense this past off season, which with the way they played, might not be a bad thing.  However I expect them to be worse and even though Alex Smith is no stud, should complete a lot of balls to this explosive second year man.  Crabtree will be a good play in leagues with a WR/TE flex position.

Team Defenses You Want To Start: Jacob

  1. MiamiThey are ranked as one of the top defenses this year. Not only that, but they are playing the Buffalo Bills. Trent Edwards at quarterback, a rookie running back and their 2nd WR has 12 catches for his career. The Bills averaged 16 pts a game last year and I don’t expect it to be any better this year.
  2. Tennessee – Also ranked pretty high this year and playing an “offensively challenged” team. The Titans are hosting the Raiders with a banged up Jason Campbell who may not even play. 43, no thats not how many points the Titans will score, but it is the total career receptions for the Raiders #1 & #2 wide receivers.
  3. San Francisco I’m picking the 49ers to win the NFC West and one of the reasons is because teams like the Seahawks are in the NFC West. I forgot they still played football in Seattle until I saw them on the schedule. Mike Singletary’s defense will shut down the Seahawks.

Shootouts – Stay Far Far Away

  1. Packers @ Eagles
  2. Colts @ Texans
  3. Bengals @ Patriots

3 responses to this post.

  1. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Illegal Shift, Illegal Shift. Illegal Shift said: Need some fantasy football help? You're welcome […]


  2. Wow Jake, way to go out on a limb and talk about the NIners D….they’re only rated the #1 Overrall D on Yahoo….. :


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